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Subsequent analyses concentrate on comparing the GCM simulations with the proxy-based hydroclimate reconstructions Sect. Over northern Scandinavia, the interannual correlations are not significant. This has limited the degree to which longer-timescale climate information can be extracted. A smoothed version of the reconstruction using a year loess smooth is shown in red. Circulation changes to the surface cooling were shown to modulate the directly forced response.

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Considerable advancements have recently been made in developing tree-ring estimates of late Holocene hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia Seftigen et al. See full item description.

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For the CMIP5—PMIP3 multi-model, multi-eruption average, only the fifth year after the eruption Crowley and Unterman,list is found to be significantly drier than the adjacent years. Firstly, we evaluated the consistency in various datasets and assessed whether the CMIP5—PMIP3 simulations have statistical properties similar to the reconstruction Sect. For each series and eruption, anomalies for 10 post-eruption years were computed relative to a 5-year pre-eruption mean.

The two reconstructions ScandH17 and ScandT14 share no common predictors and are thus fully independent, which ensures that any circular statement in the comparison can be ruled out. Advancing our understanding of the range, stability, and strength of teleconnection behavior defined here as the correlation between hydroclimate and MSLP over the Atlantic—European sector and its coupling to regional hydroclimate would provide an improved understanding of drought—pluvial dynamics and associated uncertainty.

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The mean tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction henceforth ScandH17 and the corresponding instrumental target dataset are shown in Fig.

The poor overlap between CESM1 ensemble members as well as the individual GCM simulations over the past millennium despite the use of largely similar forcing series to drive the simulations is indicative of a larger contribution from internal variability on simulated drought—pluvial occurrence than from changes in exogenous forcing. The proxy evidence, however, suggests that warm decades in the last millennium also tend to be wet decades. These results are generally consistent with prior studies Fischer et al.


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It presupposes that existing circulations will transport more moisture into mesic regions of the globe e. Smoothed time-series using a year loess filter are shown as thick lines.

However, the response is more muted than the responses 140a0s temperature and rainfall separately. The item may have some signs of cosmetic wear, but is fully operational and functions as intended.

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The tree-ring MXD and the blue intensity parameters have, in contrast, been suggested to be superior to TRW for recording short-term climate perturbations Wilson et al. Back to home page. Sell one like this.

Reduced soil moisture, for example, is associated with reduced latent heat flux and thus increased sensible heating and higher air temperatures near the surface.

The gridded monthly instrumental HadSLP2 dataset spanning —present Allan and Ansell, was used for comparison with observed and proxy-based estimates of hydroclimate. Another possibility is that the scale of the GCMs is unrepresentative of the point estimate provided by the ScandH17 reconstruction. We briefly analyze the relative role of temperature which modulates potential evapotranspiration and precipitation which supplies moisture in regional hydroclimate variability Sect.

The high year-to-year persistence may bias its ability to estimate the abruptness and severity of climatic extremes caused by volcanic cooling. United States and many other countries See details.

Although the precise reason for the model—proxy mismatch remains to be unraveled, our results suggest that spectral inconsistencies among the model and proxy datasets could be one possible explanation for the mismatch.

Being located in the high-latitude boreal zone, Viwe is well suited for ccp studies and has a long tradition of climate and environmental research using tree-ring data Linderholm et al. We compare the spectral properties of the six individual CMIP5—PMIP3 models to the ScandH17 reconstruction and observational data, which allows for a general evaluation of potential frequency biases.


We find, however, that the precipitation signal is less consistent across the six CMIP5—PMIP3 models than the cooling effect observed in the simulated temperature series. Building upon these findings, here we analyze an existing network Seftigen et al.

Paleoclimate reconstructions provide an observational basis that spans beyond current climate conditions that were used in developing and tuning such numerical models, thus allowing for out-of-sample evaluations of the models’ predictive power.

The simulated dynamical relationships were found to be largely stable for all five models, being consistent with observed correlation patterns in the modern 1400aw. The climate field reconstruction method is based on a principal component regression procedure using the TRW chronologies as potential predictors to develop a set of nested 1v.4 stepwise regression models see Cook et al.

The use of annually resolved tree-ring series in the study of past hydroclimate variations has traditionally been confined to lower-latitude arid and semiarid region, with only a few exceptions for the northern European sector.

A combined approach comparing observational both instrumental and proxy based and c; results is used for evaluation of simulated and real-world interannual to centennial climate variability and the underlying physics governing the climate system. The short-term drying is caused by a reduction in incoming solar radiation reaching the surface, which reduces evaporation, whilst the widespread 14400as stabilized the atmosphere and lowered its water holding capacity Bala et al.